Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis applied on commercial tariff with off-peak tariff rider: a case study

Commercial Tariff with Off-Peak Rider (C1 OPTR) is one type of time-based electricity tariff. The C1 OPTR charges consumers different rates instead a flat rate This paper investigates the tariff adopted recently by Universiti Teknologi MARA Cawangan Pulau Pinang (UiTMCPP) from its previous investigation involves applying uncertainty and sensitivity analysis to average load factor (ALF) model UiTMCPP. ALF consists two major factors, namely kilowatt-hour (kWh) maximum demand (kW). aims identify most contributing between kWh kW in systematic way using Monte Carlo simulation. identified important for improvement UiTMCPP ensure that suitable target can be easily achieved. Based on Sobol technique, 60,000 samples respective have been generated executed produce output model. result shows uncertain 0.195 0.343. Furthermore, applied discovers uncertainty, index indicating 0.8853.